D-Will says sayonara suckers

"You're the man." "No, you're the man."

It was bound to happen: Deron Williams officially signed with an agent and is heading to the NBA. No senior season. Can't say I blame him, although I'm a bit surprised that he signed with an agent so soon considering that there's an outside chance the NBA could go on strike this summer if they can't settle a new collective bargaining agreement. I suppose that's a long-shot; I can't imagine the league would risk trashing its already poor image. Lets see, fan-player warfare in Detroit ... ongoing rape case against one of the league's former shining stars who got off the hook but continued to make headlines by trading barbs in the paper with his former teammate(s) ... lots of talk about instituting an age-limit on the NBA to force teens to go to college (when the league's new mini-Jordan is a teen himself) ... why not end the season with a strike? So, all things considered, Williams' decision is probably the correct one. In all likelihood he's been assured by GMs and scouts of being a top-15 pick. He'll have a nice payday and start supporting his family, and by that I mean toddler.

But what about the returning Illini? How will they fare next season without Williams' seven assists per game, occasional clutch shooting, all-around leadership skills, and fine assortment of tats? What will happen when the three-headed (guard) monster loses two of its heads? I suspect all of a sudden we won't be snickering to ourselves about future matchups against Purdue, Michigan and Northwestern. (Penn State remains a laugher, though.)

The team is taking a huge punch to the gut. If you do the math, it's downright scary. With the departure of the graduating seniors (and Williams), we're losing 63% of our scoring, 63% of our outside shooting (converted three-pointers), 53% of our rebounding, and 65% of our assists. Even worse, we lose the cohesion we've enjoyed for two-plus seasons. Our eight- or nine-man rotation next year will look quite different.

Big guys: James Augustine, Warren Carter, Shaun Pruitt, red-shirter Brian Randle and transfer Marcus Arnold. Size-wise, we get a little bigger. Powell was really 6-foot-6, and despite losing Ingram at 6-foot-10 and Smith at 7-foot-2 (the tallest player in Illini history!), we get wider and more athletic. Pruitt's (6-foot-8, 245) minutes figure to increase, as he'll be battling Arnold (6-foot-8, 250) for time at the power forward. Most likely, incoming freshman Charles Jackson (6-foot-7, 260)--a highly-recruited tight end who turned down football schollies from some big boys--will not be a significant factor next year due to inexperience. Warren Carter and Brian Randle are 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-7 and will likely eat up all the minutes at small forward. Their athleticism will give the team a whole new look, and likely signal the move from a three-guard offense to a more interior-oriented offense. Those two kids will be a key, as they can cause huge matchup problems for the opposition, especially if they maintain their gym membership over the summer and practice that 18-foot jump shot.

Guards: Dee Brown, Rich McBride, and red-shirter Calvin Brock are the only returning members of what was once an incredibly strong backcourt. That means minutes are likely for one of the following incoming frosh: 6-foot-3 Jamar Smith--a sharp-shooting two-guard from Peoria Richwoods--or 6-foot-1 point guard Chester Frazier. Frazier is the more likely candidate, as we'll need a back-up for Dee, now the team's only true point. Our backcourt goes from boasting of three experienced ballhandlers who can shoot the rock to one ballhandler and a bunch of question marks. Can McBride, who was recruited to Illinois to hit three-pointers, regain his shooting touch after shooting a miserable 31% from beyond the arc? Does the high-flying Brock have any outside game to speak of? Will either of the freshman contribute valuable minutes? I'm guessing that Brock will oust McBride out of the starting lineup. McBride is much better suited to a Sean Harrington-like bench role, and Brock appears to have far more upside. In many ways, Brock's game resembles a young Luther Head. He'll add some penetration to compliment "Deeeee-for-Threeeeee". The wild card in this discussion is what Coach Weber will decide to do with the scholarship that just fell in his lap with D-Will's departure. Most think he'll save it for next year if he can't land 6-foot-6 small forward Brandon Rush, a five-star prospect that's debating offers from Oklahoma, Illinois, Georgetown and Wake Forest...or the NBA. Rush is an explosive scorer who would step in to the rotation immediately.

I suppose anything is possible with next year's group. (I sure didn't expect this season's crew to hold down the No. 1 ranking for the majority of the season.) That said, I don't think the Big Ten will be a cakewalk next year. It will be a transition year for the Illini, and unless Dee Brown really finds his season-long groove and James Augustine stops disappearing from game-to-game, the team will struggle. The concept of an offense that doesn't launch (no shit) 22 three-pointers per game seems foreign. But, I suspect next year's team will be far more of an inside-out group. I don't doubt Weber's abilities as a coach, but the inexperience of the team will surely prove to be its downfall when it comes time to battling more experienced Big Ten foes like Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan State. (This should prove especially true on the road, where we nearly went undefeated this season.) Without seeing the schedule, if we make it to 20 wins, finish in the top five of the conference and earn a tourney birth, I'd say that's a good season to build off of. With the team's recent media blitz, recruiting for the class of 2006 should bring in some dandy players, and lead the way for a brighter future.